Trumpism without Trump

Over the past year, many Republicans have begun envisioning the post-Trump era. Following the 2020 elections, Donald Trump will be a second-term President ineligible to run again or out of office come early 2021. Either way, the post-Donald Trump era of Republican politics will be conceived in earnest.

Due to the unique nature of the Trump coalition, which empowered working class white voters who had been drifting to the GOP for decades but flooded it during the late Obama/rise of Trump era (2014 to 2016 in particular), there exists a great deal more speculation about what “Trumpism without Trump” will entail.  Those who see Trumpism as an ideology are keen to formulate a more nationalistic GOP – one that espouses lower levels of immigration (both illegal and legal), skepticism on free trade, and anti-interventionism.  All of these policy positions appear to have more support amongst the Trumpier wing of the GOP, and are areas where candidate Donald Trump largely broke with traditional Republican orthodoxy.*

That said, a significant proportion of GOP elected officials are not particularly Trumpist.  While Trump has dramatically influenced the party on border security, many elected Republicans disfavor President Trump’s tariffs (grousing about them occasionally in public and, allegedly, quite a bit in private) and party officials retain diverse views regarding American diplomacy.

Accordingly, a continuation of “Trumpism without Trump” is almost certain to require the injection of new political blood into the national GOP.  While it is unreasonable to expect a massive overhaul of GOP politicians (as primary electorates tend to stick with what they know), new and prominent voices are likely required to promote the Trumpian agenda during the tail end of and after the Trump Presidency.

And several such voices have emerged, both during the 2018 election cycle and now in the buildup to 2020.  While these new options for GOP voters appear to be committed to the Trumpian ideological agenda, their closest resemblance to Trump is in the behavioral and tonal arenas.  President Trump’s personality is unique for a major American political figure — he seeks out conflict, is unafraid to unleash relentless, personal attacks against his opposition (regardless of party), and actively refuses to conform to traditional standards of political decorum.  To be clear, these attributes are a major part of his appeal to the Trumpian base, potentially as much or even more than his policy agenda.  The President’s acolytes recognize the adulation Trump receives for his take no prisoners approach, and are working to emulate the Trumpian style.

Two of these potential heirs to Trump have recently been in the news.  2020 Kansas Senatorial candidate Kris Kobach is being poll tested against possible Democratic opponents.  Former Trump aide and close Trump confidant Corey Lewandowski, fresh off his lauded Congressional testimony where came out guns ablazin’ against Democratic questioners, is reputed to be interested in the New Hampshire Senate race.  And while not recently in the news, Alabama cowboy Roy Moore is running a second senatorial campaign since Trump’s 2016 election.

Likely voters, however, are not responding to the tonal replicas of President Trump.  Kobach is reported to be losing to a possible Democratic opponent by a whopping 10 percentage points, in a state that has not elected a Democratic Senator since … 1932.  In the previous election cycle, Kobach was soundly beaten by a Democrat for the Kansas governorship, despite the ruby red hue of the Jayhawk state electorate.  Lewandowski, whose relationship with Trump positions him more closely with the President than any GOP elected official, faces an extremely uphill battle in the New Hampshire Senate contest, regardless of Trump’s relatively narrow 2016 loss in that state.  And Moore, fresh off one of the most pathetic defeats in a recent Senate race (losing a state won by Trump and Mitt Romney by 20-30%) appears a longshot to obtain a general election rematch with Democratic Senator Doug Jones (who bested him in the 2017 special election).

Bottom line, Trumpism without Trump walks a tightrope.  Unorthodox politicians who share the Trumpian ideology and personality appear to turn off large swaths of general election voters, including those in rather Republican states.  Maybe the success of Trump and the limitations of his heirs are simple.  No wannabe Trumps can replicate a 40-year career in the public eye, where the image of successful businessman, reality TV star, and rabble-rousing iconoclast was cultivated.  Instead, they are just politicians whose relatively uncommon personality characteristics generate skepticism among the electorate.

Accordingly, Trumpism without Trump may need to chart a different course — find Republican politicians who are sympathetic to Trump’s breaks with GOP orthodoxy but can make a more traditional personality case to the general public.  Whether this can be accomplished will go a long way to determining Donald Trump’s policy impact on future GOPs.

* It is worth noting that President Donald Trump is a mixed bag when it comes to promoting policies consistent with this description of Trumpism.  He is certainly aggressive on border security, believes in tariffs, and has been generally cautious regarding international interventions.  However, his legal immigration proposals are generally not restrictive (and instead change the criteria for legal immigration to favor merit versus family connections) and many of his businesses have long been reliant on significant volumes of legal immigrant labor.