So Long, Farewell, Auf Wiedersehen, Goodnight

While the pleasantly voiced lyrics from this famous “Sound of Music” melody quoted in the title of this piece don’t fit the spirit of the Donald Trump era in American politics, one of the most popular films amongst the female demographic is an appropriate swan song for this Presidency, which likely comes to its electoral conclusion in just a few days on November 3, 2020. A conclusion that will likely be rendered on the backs of a massive gender gap where President Donald J. Trump runs strongly with men (including some minority men) and gets absolutely and totally crushed by the women’s vote across the board.

Today’s article is a breakdown of this blogger’s predictions for the 2020 Presidential election and the key states/districts therein. Other than above, it will shed the typical flowery language and provide succinct breakdowns of the battle for the Oval Office.

The Presidency

Back in January, before a primary vote had been cast, this blog predicted a narrow Biden victory in a campaign where Biden refused to engage Trump in a race to the bottom. Little did the blogger know that a global pandemic would render it even easier for Joe Biden to employ what turned into the “basement strategy” of absconding from the spotlight and letting voters give an up or down on Trump (rather than evaluating Biden and his party on the merits).

While it has always been the expectation here that “The Trump Show” would be cancelled in 2020, events have conspired to make Trump’s removal from office a less close-run matter than had Covid not occurred. Accordingly, the prediction here is that Biden will win the national popular vote by approximately 6.8 percent.

Key Presidential Battlegrounds

Florida – The stubbornest of swing states, there is basically zero Presidential vote separation between the GOP and the Dems in Florida over nearly thirty (30) years.  Expect this year to be more of the same, with just enough senior backlash to produce a Biden by 2 result.  If Biden wins early-reporting Florida, the reality is that it will be an early night on knowing the Presidential winner.  If he loses, the chances of the election result being uncertain for days massively increases.

Georgia – The GOP is taking on water in the Peach state.  A combination of a growing African American vote and outraged suburbanites in greater Atlanta overcome staunch Trump support in the remainder of the state.  Biden by 1.

North Carolina – The state where Republicans are perpetually underestimated comes home to Trump by 1.

Pennsylvania – This is Trump’s Midwestern firewall, as he appears more popular in PA than he does in Michigan and Wisconsin (two 2016 surprises).  But a white working class surge for Trump is overcome by a suburban revolt against The Donald.  Biden by 5.

Michigan – 2016 was a fluke in Michigan.  The other states won by Trump were not, but this one was.  Biden by 8.

Wisconsin – A Covid surge and a personality that is not “Midwestern nice” does Trump in and it’s Biden by 8.  Minnesota produces a similar, slightly more Biden-friendly outcome.

Iowa/Ohio – The quintessential Trump 2016 states do not entirely reject their man.  Late polling in Iowa shows Trump consolidating support, and there’s not a good reason to anticipate Ohio will be much different.  Trump by 5 in Iowa and by 4 in Ohio.

Texas – Texas should not be a swing state, but Donald J. Trump is a uniquely horrid fit for the Texas GOP electorate, a fact which will come very clear in 2022 if Biden is the President.  Trump survives by merely 1 point, losing a staggering 14% from the Mitt Romney 2012 margin in just eight years.  Texas then returns to being reliably Republican for most of the 2020s.

Arizona – The home of the surburban revolt against Donald Trump is Phoenix.  And it dominates the total votes in the state.  Biden by 4.

Nevada – A quirky state where Trump could outrun his 2016 performance.  The pick here is Biden by 5, but a much closer race in Nevada would not shock.

Nebraska (2nd CD) – Nebraska awards one electoral vote for each Congressional District winner.  This district is basically greater Omaha, a perfect encapsulation of Trump’s problems in suburbs and among “Midwestern nice” voters in the country’s Great Plains.  Biden by 6.

Maine (2nd CD) – Like Nebraska, Maine breaks the mold by awarding electoral votes in part based on individual Congressional District preferences.  Maine-2 loved Trump in 2016, but its passion for him has waned since.  Biden by 2.

Based on the above state-level predictions, this blog projects Joe Biden to be elected the next President of the United States with a commanding but not overwhelming 336-202 Electoral College victory.