Typhoon Trump – 2026 Elections Edition

As the US fast approaches the 2026 midterm elections, harkening back a decade to 2016 offers the most color. That year, the country experienced a political typhoon, with billionaire and reality TV star Donald Trump riding a populist wave into the Presidency, despite narrowly losing the popular vote. Over the past decade, for better or worse, Trump has dominated the nation’s political scene across his two non-consecutive Presidential terms and the Joe Biden interlude. Now, a flagging MAGA movement – weighed down by continued inflation, tariffs, the Iran War, and dogged allegations of industrial-scale corruption – faces down its own electoral typhoon.

While the Democratic Party has done relatively little to rehabilitate itself from its own unpopularity during the Biden/Harris years, it has the distinct advantage in 2026 of being “not Trump.” Here are my predictions of how that plays out across the two houses of Congress (the House and the Senate) in 2026.

The House

As House terms run for only a short two years, all 435 seats are up for re-election.  As it currently stands, Republicans hold (or held until a vacancy) 220 seats, while Democrats possess 215 seats.  In effect, a three seat gain switches control to the Democrats.

Over the past two years, knowing GOP House control was under grave threat, Trump and his merry band of Republican apparatchiks redistricted in an effort to gain GOP advantage in several states, with Democrats responding in kind across a few of their own.  Ultimately, that redistricting generated a lot of noise for little tangible 2026 benefit, as Democratic control of the House now looks virtually certain.

As it currently stands, the prediction here is for a Democratic gain of 20-25 seats, with 235-240 Democrats being seated in January.  To this predictor, it would be rather surprising for Democrats to end with less than 230 seats or more than 245, but the small band in the middle of this broader range is the pick.

To get such a gain, Democrats need a massive advantage in the national popular vote.  While theoretically difficult, electoral tsunamis produce such margins, and the pick is a Democrat +9 national House vote.

The Senate

Republicans currently hold 53 of the 100 Senate seats.  Because Senate seats run for 6 years, not all Senators are up for re-election.  Of the roughly 35 Senate races on the 2026 Senate ballot, Democrats must gain 4 seats to take control of the chamber.  This piece analyzes the various competitive races (individually or in groups) and gives an individual pick in each.

North Carolina and Georgia – Put simply, Republicans are really struggling in these swing southern states won by Trump in 2024.  Both Democratic and black turnout has surged in each state throughout their extensive early voting periods, and nothing in any data suggests either race will be anything other than a wipeout of the Republicans.  The pick is a Democratic gain by Roy Cooper in North Carolina and a Democratic hold by prospective 2028 Presidential contender Jon Ossoff in Georgia.

Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska – These solidly red Heartland states are all competitive Senate turf in 2026, in spite of their heavy GOP leans.  While Iowa is only recently a “red wall” state, Nebraska and Kansas have long been safe territory for the GOP.  Assessing the early vote and the polling, Nebraska (where Democrats are running an “independent in affiliation only”) seems to be the safest for Republicans, while Kansas is shakier than it has been in decades.  While the polling in Iowa indicates a true toss up, the early vote breakdowns look better for Republicans here than almost any other state.  The picks are Republican holds by Pete Ricketts (NE), Ashley Hinson (IA), and Roger Marshall (KS) in all three states, with Kansas actually ending the closest, likely due to the strength of Democratic candidate and megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton.

Alaska – Former House member and Democrat Mary Peltola is giving incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan a major run for his money in another relatively red jurisdiction.  Alaskan politics generally and this race specifically, where the ranked choice ballot has not one but two “Republican” Dan Sullivans on it (frankly, a dirty trick by Dem operatives), are weird, and anything is possible in Alaska, including control of the US Senate coming down to the distribution of ranked choice votes here several weeks after polls close.  While Democrats perhaps don’t deserve to win this race due to their questionable ballot tactics, the pick is Mary Peltola and another Dem gain.

South Carolina and Florida – The national problems of Republicans require these races to be mentioned, but ultimately, South Carolina and Florida are red enough states to survive a wave.  The pick here is Republican holds by the late Lindsey Graham’s sister Darlene (SC) and Ashley Hinson (FL).

Ohio – Like Florida, Ohio was once a true bellwether in American politics.  Over the last decade, its strange demographics – industrial Midwesterners across most of the state but Appalachians in the state’s southern and eastern border regions – have moved it right.  However, until 2024, former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown had survived the rightward shift.  With JD Vance’s elevation to the Vice Presidency, Brown was given a quick crack at returning to the Senate in this special election.  There is very little data to suggest Brown won’t replicate Donald Trump’s resurrection act, and the pick here is Sherrod Brown over Jon Husted in Ohio.

Maine and Michigan – Moderate Republican Susan Collins has been one of America’s greatest electoral forces in Maine, surviving repeatedly in a Democratic leaning state despite the increased partisanship among the electorate at large.  In sharp contrast, Democratic firebrand Abdul El Sayed is anything but an electoral force, with his own polling performance in Michigan badly lagging what one might expect from a more generic Democratic.  Good candidates matter a lot in small states, but much less so in bigger ones (where the electorate feels less of a connection to its politicians).  The pick here is a narrow hold for both the Republican Collins in Maine and the Democrat El Sayed in Michigan.

Texas – Based on the above picks, with 3 gains for Democrats and none for Republicans, Texas becomes the proverbial whole chinchilla for Senate control come 2027.  And Texas – where Republicans have not lost a statewide race since 1994 – is hardly the place politicos might expect to host arguably the most important race on the 2026 ballot.  That said, Donald Trump’s unpopularity, Texas’ huge suburbs, and the rising Latino vote in the state combine to make Texas a “reach” target for Democrats in wave circumstances.  Even then, without a massive Republican own goal nominating pen-stealin’, spouse cheatin’, securities fraud dealin’, and all-around corrupt scumbag Attorney General Ken Paxton (who defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn in a primary runoff), Democrats would still be solid underdogs in this race.  This is particularly true where Democratic candidate James Talarico offers a fresh face but hardly seems the optimal (moderate) candidate for Texas Dems.

That said, Republican partisans defied logic and reason when nominating Paxton, they own him.  And when he loses … they will have only themselves to blame for Democratic control of the Senate.  The pick here is for Democrats to get their Tal-a-FREAK-on next week, and ride James Talarico to a 51-49 margin in the Senate.