A Cold Opening

Mitt Romney’s arrival in Washington (it sure seems like a return but amazingly it isn’t) comes with somewhat unexpected fireworks. In the event you haven’t read it, Romney’s eloquent take about the character flaws of one Donald J. Trump is linked below.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/mitt-romney-the-president-shapes-the-public-character-of-the-nation-trumps-character-falls-short/2019/01/01/37a3c8c2-0d1a-11e9-8938-5898adc28fa2_story.html?utm_term=.fc9c4009fb4e

Unsurprisingly, Romney’s criticisms of Trump have sparked a significant backlash from several members of Team Trump (including from RNC chair Ronna Romney McDaniel, Mitt Romney’s niece). Trump himself took a much more laissez faire approach in expressing dismay than he is wont to do, merely criticizing Romney for failing to beat Obama and not being a team player (the latter criticism in not entirely unfair considering Trump’s endorsement of Romney in 2018).

In the present circumstances, Romney’s foray into the “NeverTrump” territory of criticizing President Trump’s character and fitness to lead serves three purposes. The first – which is not the focus of this post – is to indicate that Romney is willing to criticize Trump on the big ticket issues but is not going to engage in the daily “Resistance” meltdowns over every minor breach of decorum engaged in by the President. The second – also not the focus of this post – was to remind the media and the anti-Trump forces that Mitt Romney does not stop being a Republican because he does not like Donald Trump. These two matters – the hallmarks of the Ben Sasse approach to Trump criticism – denote of an independence from Trump but not much of an ideological disagreement with the bulk of the Trump agenda.

The third – by far the most interesting – is Romney’s fairly coy bet about the political circumstances of 2019. Romney arrives in Washington as, remarkably for a junior Senator from a small state, the fourth most influential Republican in the country behind Trump, Vice President Mike Pence, and Senate leader Mitch McConnell (on the House side, GOP Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is far from a household name or influential figure). Of the three GOP politicians more important than Romney, Trump is the presumptive Presidential nominee in 2020 and McConnell has no ambitions to be President (and will likely be running for reelection come 2020). As such, should circumstances arise that derail the Trump 2020 express, Romney becomes a central figure in the equation about the next GOP Presidential nominee (particularly because Pence does not appear to inspire a great deal of excitement amongst the Trump base and is exceedingly unlikely to win over Trump-skeptic and Trump-lukewarm GOPers).

This bet is premised on the possibility that 2019 is an ugly year for Trump. With Dem control of the House beginning in hours, Trump policy wins are likely to be confined to judges (confirmation is a function of only the Senate), deregulation via executive authority, and a possible immigration deal that may not be lauded by his immigration-skeptic base. With a limited upside, Trump’s downside has grown considerably. The Mueller Report is likely to be issued sooner rather than later, and may contain ugly allegations about Trump’s 2016 campaign and, possibly more importantly, Trump’s business dealings with nefarious figures in Russia, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East. Congressional investigations have the potential to make Trump’s heretofore undisclosed tax returns a centerpiece of our 2019 political conversation. And indictments of close Trump associates – including his son Donald Trump, Jr. and son-in-law Jared Kushner – are on the table. While Donald Trump has proven to be “Teflon Don” to hardcore Republicans (and quite the opposite to virtually everyone else), there exists the real possibility that compounding legal, business, and personal issues will drain his support amongst all but the most hardened Trump fans.

Should that happen, Mitt Romney is betting that he is a viable option to replace (or even challenge) Trump as the 2020 GOP standard bearer. Should it not, Romney’s next election is in 2024, when Trump will not be on the ballot. To Romney, the stakes for challenging Trump’s character appear quite small.