The Economy, Stupid

As Bill Clinton rode to what would ultimately turn out to be a stunning upset in the 1992 President election, one of his top strategists – the “Ragin’ Cajun” James Carville – emphasized a primary theme of the Clinton campaign. Three simple words – “The economy, stupid.” Coming off an economic downturn beginning in late 1991 and which extended into 1992, Carville and Clinton understood that the single most critical factor in bringing an end to 12 years of Republican control of the Presidency was the difficulties then being experienced by the US economy.

By election day – when Clinton looked like a likely, albeit narrow, victor – Carville was proven prescient. He and the preternaturally talented politician who was soon to be President (Clinton) had done the unthinkable, and won an election in which their candidate was dogged by sex scandals and other allegations of misbehavior. They had won it after 12 years of mostly successful Republican rule – in which the economy (prior to late 1991) performed very well, international Communism was destroyed and discredited (a joint economic and military victory), and President George H.W. Bush presided over the wildly successful Gulf War that exorcised the ghosts of Vietnam for many Americans.

Today, “the economy, stupid” has fallen out of favor as a critical issue, particularly on the left. In a recent Pew survey, Democratic partisans rated their top five issues in the following order: health care, education, environment, Medicare, and poor and needy. Supporters of the GOP were somewhat more bullish on economic matters, rating it second behind terrorism on the most important issues (with Social Security, immigration, and the military rounding out the top five).

Republicans and Democrats have grown further apart on what the nation’s top priorities should be

Despite these rankings, where Dems don’t include “the economy” as a top issue (and Republicans rate terrorism – whose threat to the US likely peaked between 1998 and 2006 – as a more critical issue), our political system and politicians had better not forget that “the economy, stupid” – absent a major foreign war – will always be the most critical issue to this nation’s health and their own electoral fortunes.

First, let’s look at a recent example of how economic performance impacts electoral outcomes. In 2016, the economy (stupid) was respectable, certainly better than what US voters saw in November 2008 and even November 2012. However, certain parts of America – especially mid-sized and rural areas in the nation’s hinterlands – had a legitimate claim that they’d been left behind by the recovery from the Great Recession. These same voters – overlooked by nearly all voices in politics and an increasingly coastal-dominated media – propelled one Donald J. Trump to the Presidency. The same Trump who gave voice to their (mostly economic) anxieties ignored by an “Establishment” that had alienated them. From Scranton, Pennsylvania to Green Bay, Wisconsin to rural North Carolina, Trump smashed previous high water marks for Republican candidates in these less traveled locales, giving him unexpected margins and wins in Midwestern and other less urban battlegrounds. It was, quite frankly, the economy, stupid that buried the prognostications about an easy Hillary Clinton win.

Second, the economy (stupid) dictates American perceptions of a remarkable number of the issues which voter groups actually rate as similarly or more important. Of the nine other issues selected as most critical by Democrats and Republicans, the economy is actually fairly central to five of the other matters identified – environment, Medicare, poor and needy, Social Security and immigration. For example, influxes of immigrants often peak during boom economic times (simply look at the cratering of illegal immigration in the period immediately following the Great Recession). Sustained and successful economic growth is almost certainly the best salve for alleviating poverty. Environmental concerns are invariably weighed by their economic impact/cost. The long-term health of old age entitlements such as Social Security and Medicare requires a thriving economy (and most likely, a numerically growing workforce). Even health care (not listed above) has enormous economic impacts, as it constitutes one-sixth of the present United States economy. Put simply, no domestic matter possesses more than a fraction of the importance of a successful economy and continued growth, and economic considerations often dictate how other issues evolve.

Accordingly, as the nation embarks on what is now a nearly two-year cycle of electing the next President, those keeping tabs on the race should maintain “the economy, stupid” at the forefront of their minds. Even more importantly, the politicians in the race must do the same. If one can’t convince the voters that he or she will govern “the economy, stupid” in a way beneficial to the country, that individual will not be taking the oath of office come January 2021.