2022: The Year Everything Changes

In American politics, the last 20 years have largely been one of trench warfare between the Republican and Democratic parties. For every incremental Democratic gain on health care, Republicans strike back with a small win on tax policy. The left makes major gains on gay rights; the right counters on gun rights. But the central feature of this political era has been stalemate, both electorally and legislatively. In fact, Democratic activists express major frustration on the lack of legislative success, while Republican activists bemoan culture war losses that have virtually no political component to them. And, as Americans have seen, the most invested in politics are the most frustrated about them.

Fundamentally, while the American political system is deliberately designed to slow the pace of change, electoral politics have driven this recent stalemate more than anything. Democrats have enjoyed a small 2-3% advantage in electoral outcomes (i.e, Democratic Presidential results have been a couple of points better than Republican results when averaged over the time period since 2000), while Republicans counter with a geographic advantage (small states enjoy a slight overrepresentation in political power versus urban states, and Republicans tend to do somewhat better than Democrats in such states). In effect, there’s no reason for either party to have gained or lost much; the American Constitutional system has them tied.

This commentator sees signs that the longstanding “tie” is coming to an end. A quick-moving confluence of factors points to a Republican decade, and a Democratic Party that will require reassessment as the 2020s move forward. Let’s discuss the why for this opinion.

1. Latinos, Latinos, and Latinas.

For some time, the Democratic Party has adhered to a “demographics in destiny” theory of the electorate, as first set forth several decades ago in a book by Ruy Teixeira and John Judis titled “The Emerging Democratic Majority.” The book posited that, as Dem-friendly minority groups grew in the electorate, the party of the left would win an increasing number of elections. This thesis, while fairly well grounded, has mostly not come to pass, with former white working class Democrats switching allegiances to the GOP in a manner that has largely neutralized natural Democratic gains due to more minority votes being cast.

Today, the underlying theory itself is under its greatest test yet (so much so that Teixeira now rejects his own thesis and is largely a “merchant of doom” regarding the state of his preferred Democratic Party). Specifically, after hitting a nadir among Latino voters in the 2012 Presidential run, Republicans saw modest gains in Trump 2016 (despite openly nativist, anti-Hispanic behavior from its own candidate) and dramatic ones in 2020 (when Donald Trump conveniently forgot his 2016 views and was running Spanish-language ads replete with salsa music in markets like Miami). Polling for 2022 reflects even more dramatic declines for Democrats among Latinos (and the 2021 Virginia Governor results appear to reflect very poor results for the Democrats in more Hispanic areas of the Washington DC metro area), and Republicans in places such as Texas are openly discussing winning statewide majorities of Latinos in key races.

While the results aren’t fully in yet, what could be driving this change? From the perspective of this blogger, it’s the most American of items – assimilation. Like America once became a more Irish nation and later a more Italian one, the United States is now becoming a more Latino country. A recent trip to the St. Patrick’s Day parade here in Dallas gave witness to one float after another celebrating various Latino groups (through the “drinking eyes” of the Irish, of course). There’s little more American than people with recent roots in Mexico and central America co-opting a holiday created by Gaelics from the British Isles. Moving back to assimilation itself, Democrats have consistently performed much better among “out groups” (ones defined by minority identity) than the whiter, less diverse GOP. What happens when an “out group” – such as Latinos with recent roots outside of the US – evolves into an “in group”? As we are seeing, said group tends to fracture more on ideological lines than voting monolithically on identity. As levels of assimilation increase, more and more culturally conservative and religious Latinos are likely to feel at home in a culturally conservative, more religious Republican Party.

Put simply, expect Republicans to be ecstatic with the party’s performance among Latinos and Latinas in 2022, and expect even more gains as the decade progresses.

2. The Trump Effect.

While this thesis is more fully explored in a prior piece somewhat jokingly entitled “In Praise of Donald J. Trump” (as Trump is not a favorite of this blogger), it’s simply undeniable that Trump crushed the viewpoint of Republicans as “the rich man’s party” and mobilized a fair number of white working class voters in support of both himself and the GOP generally. While the ability of other Republicans to keep these voters (some of whom were former Democrats and others of whom were on the political sidelines) in the fold is presently an unknown, it’s a safe bet that they, like so many other Americans, are much more engaged in politics today than a decade back and are thus more likely to vote (and vote heavily GOP) in coming elections. Over time, the Trump effect will certainly fade, but don’t expect those declines soon.

3. The Activist Left.

The Democratic Party of 2022 is not your father’s Democratic Party. Activist voters (who are largely on the left wing of the party) have grown more numerous and frankly, more shrill. In a saner era of politics, a Democratic Party would have been able to blunt the quick evolution of calls for police reform after the George Floyd killing into demands to “defund the police.” Likewise, Democrats would have laughed out of the room the idea of spending trillions more on social welfare while commanding a 222-213 House advantage and a 50-50 Senate “majority;” in 2021, it was the centerpiece of the Biden agenda. There would be no demands from the Ivy League for biological men to compete in women’s sports in the name of transgenderism. Bills prohibiting classroom discussions about sexual orientation and gender identity with kids under 10 would not be controversial (and in fact, polling shows such laws simply aren’t controversial with the large mass of Americans). Purported “voter suppression” laws that receive majority support in polling of black voters might be debated on the merits rather than decried as the end of democracy and equal rights.

The examples roll on. But truth be told, the Democrats are stuck with a Presidential Administration which promised a “return to normal” after Trump that has somehow morphed into a launching pad for the silliest, least popular ideas of the far left of its party. Though it need not be said, such policy preferences are not good for a party’s electability.

4. Covid and Freedom.

While this is likely the least salient of the four topics, it is at least deserving of mention. This blogger has reiterated his belief that, in America, the political side that is winning is usually the one that can cloak its agenda under the rubric of “more freedom.” The two most successful political movements since 2000 – gay rights and gun rights – come from opposite political corners but share a commitment to the enhancement of freedom for Americans; both emerged victorious.

Since early summer 2020 when it emerged that Covid was very serious but not permanently society altering, the Republican Party’s Covid response has been marked by a strong preference towards greater individual autonomy despite Covid, while Democrats have focused against greater protection from disease even at the cost of freedoms. Initially, many Americans agreed with Dems, they were afraid of a disease about which little was known. Following the widespread availability of vaccinations, support for a restrictions regime faded dramatically, yet many Democratic friendly jurisdictions maintained significant Covid-related “interventions” for nearly an additional year and some restrictions, such as the mask mandate on domestic flights, persist to the present.  Notably, even Democratic politicians have recognized the national mood on the issue, with every vulnerable Democratic Senator up for reelection in 2022 voting to revoke the airline mask mandate that the Biden Administration still steadfastly refuses to remove.

While we may never know the political beneficiaries of Covid politics during the pandemic, an association with restrictionism is a much more clearly losing position over the long term.  And only one party will own such a distinction in the freedom-addled United States.

In summary, this blogger is on record with his expectation that the American electorate is shifting rightward, enough that the GOP is in a position to break a generation-long political stalemate as the 2020s proceed.  A future post will explore the means by which Republicans can enhance or undermine their prospects for taking advantage of this massive electoral opportunity.