Trump v. Kamala: The Curious Case of the Popular Will

Today, tens of millions of American voters will go to the polls to cast their ballots in a Presidential election where extreme uncertainty about the result rules the day. After a dramatic summer in which the Republican candidate narrowly dodged an assassin’s bullet and the aging Democratic candidate fell victim to an intraparty palace coup, the electorate has seen a quiet fall without an “October surprise.” Instead, an angry former President Donald Trump has reigned oracular fury down on his perceived enemies (and actual legal tormentors) and newly-crowned Democratic standard bearer Kamala Harris has “brought the joy” but little in the way of actual substance. In fact, most voters should expect a bit more of that so-called policy substance for an election many partisans deem “the most important of our lifetimes,” but perhaps the most important election of one’s lifetime is solely determined by the woe felt by members of Team Red and Team Blue forced to suffer through the existence of a President from the other side. Before we get to the predictions for the Presidency, Senate, House, and a Governorship or two, let’s discuss a handful of the most important themes for this election.

A. Populism is not actually popular. Neither are Democrats.

Donald Trump is a very different candidate of the Republicans of yore. A hardened populist, he has dispensed with much of the ideology of the pre-Trump GOP. Tariffs are in; free trade is out. Debt is no longer a dirty word; fiscally questionable deficit spending primes the pump. International engagement is disfavored; increasing isolationism is the ticket. Social conservatism has been shoved aside to ensure not offending the sensibilities of the thrice-married and porn star-addled Trump. Populism – an ideology premised on the concept that there is a “popular will” being thwarted by elites but might be best described as an “Ideology of the Politically Illiterate” – is in vogue on the right.

On the other hand, the Democratic Party’s management of the country is widely panned by the voters. After years of inflation and rampant illegal border crossings, Democrats find themselves well behind in the polling on critical issues such as the economy and immigration. Under normal circumstances, such a popularity deficit would be fatal for an incumbent party. Instead, Trump and Harris appear headed for a close finish in the national popular vote.

The question remains, why are Dems in the game when voters deeply dislike their policies? Some may answer Trump, but international politics might suggest a broader problem for the “populist right.” In the summer of 2024, France held legislative elections which were expected to yield a populist majority; instead, a broad swath of the electorate rejected the Franconian populist National Front, which finished third.  Around the same time, populists in the United Kingdom were able to undermine the somewhat ideologically aligned Conservative Party, but secured for themselves less than 1% of the seats in British Parliament. By sharp contrast, a more traditional Canadian Conservative Party leads polling in advance of next year’s elections by a staggering 20%.  It appears that, like some European allies, many American voters have concerns regarding handing the reins of power to a grievance-heavy populist right, even where they view left of center governance as largely unsuccessful.

B. Trump’s prior term giveth and taketh away.

Despite some of the above backlash directed towards a more populist GOP, many voters – including some Trump skeptical – are of the opinion that they would strongly prefer the pre-Covid Trump economy to the current Biden economy (how much influence the President really has on economic performance is a separate and contested issue), and the economy and the border keep Donald Trump within striking distance of a victory.

In sharp contrast, some of the competence issues that marred the initial Trump Administration may come back to haunt him in the aftermath of the 2024 election. In 2020, Trump presided over what many observers consider a failed Census in which the population of a number of reddish Sunbelt states was undercounted, thus depriving said states of a handful of additional votes in the Electoral College. But for this error, Trump’s path to the Presidency would not require a win in any of the Northern battlegrounds – Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – up for grabs tomorrow. Instead, by losing all three but sweeping the other swing states, Trump is almost certain to fall 270-268 in the Electoral College.  A proper count was likely to accord Florida and Texas one additional Electoral Vote each, thus turning a 270-268 loss under the current apportionment into a 270-268 win under a proper apportionment.

Separately and notably, the much greater than usual migration between states that occurred from mid-2020 through roughly 2023 as a result of the Covid fallout also may impact the current Presidential race.  Based on most accounts, the influx of new residents into reliably Republican states – which happened to have more lax Covid-related restrictions – came largely from right-leaning voters desirous of less intrusive state and local authorities.  Could Republicans benefit from favorable in flows in a state like Arizona, while Dems benefit from favorable outflows (at least in the partisan sense) across the Northern battlegrounds?

C.  The Presidential outcome is close, but may tilt slightly to Harris.

Per most polls and pundits, there are a mere seven (7) “swing states” for the 2024 election – Pennsylvania (considered the most important), Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.  Based on geography and demographics they fall into three general buckets.

1.  The Northern Blue Wall – Outside of 2016, Democrats have not lost any of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin since 1988.  These states are older, whiter, and historically have a greater share of unions/manufacturing employment.  Outside of Wisconsin – where the electorate played footsie with George W. Bush – none were particularly hospitable to Republican Presidential candidates until Trump staggered Dems with his 2016 ambush.
2. The Dirty South – While Georgia and North Carolina are not demographically identical, with North Carolina being somewhat less black and more rural, these are the two Southern swing states and their results are likely to be somewhat similar (but potentially both very close).
3. The Desert – The states of Arizona and Nevada are both carved out of the desert, dominated by a single city (Phoenix and Las Vegas), and more likely to be impacted by the immigration issue than other states.  That said, Arizona is more suburban; Nevada has greater diversity and a larger working class.

Based on my review of substantial data regarding the election and sense of the electorate, Harris is likely strongest in the Blue Wall, while Trump seems best positioned in The Desert.  The Dirty South looks to potentially go either way.  Forced to make a call, this pundit expects Harris to sweep the Blue Wall (with the biggest victory in Wisconsin) and add North Carolina to her column in an exceedingly close count; Trump is picked to win Georgia (a state that he inexcusably lost in 2020), Arizona (his best of the swing states), and a barnburner in Nevada.  This would produce a Harris 286-252 Electoral College victory, although subtracting NC from the Harris column would generate the mass hysteria outcome of 270-268 in Harris’ favor.

Additionally, the pick here is a 50-48% Harris win in the meaningless national popular vote, with Harris overperforming her recent predecessors in the Midwest but underperforming in the Sunbelt.  Such a result would be consistent with an expected slight national downturn in turnout, as Trump appears to benefit the most from a large electorate in the North (more working class white voters) while Dems gain from big turnout in the South (more Dem-friendly minorities).

Before closing the books on the Presidency, I would be remiss to not mention the few other states that are at least potentially competitive.  In particular, America’s most exciting swing state Florida is not entirely off the board, but migration and demographic trends make it an increasingly GOP state in which Trump may roll by a better than usual margin.  New Mexico’s large Hispanic population makes it possible that “yuge” Trumpian gains in this demographic could shock the world for Trump, but the Dem margins the Land of Enchantment have been historically large enough to withstand all but the most extreme GOP surge.  On the other hand, recent polling out of Iowa and Ohio showing some Trump weakness – particularly Ann Selzer’s Saturday poll showing a shocking 3 point Harris lead in Iowa (and several other polls showing a close race in Ohio) point to these former Northern swing states as possibly more competitive than expected and a potentially bad harbinger for Trump in the Blue Wall.

For ease of review, here’s the short form of the projections:

• Pennsylvania – Harris by 2%
• Michigan – Harris by 2%
• Wisconsin – Harris by 4%
• North Carolina – Harris by less than 1%
• Georgia – Trump by 1%
• Arizona – Trump by 4%
• Nevada – Trump by less than 1%
• Florida – Trump by 8%
• New Mexico – Harris by 7%
• Iowa – Trump by 2%
• Ohio – Trump by 4%

D.  Republicans should win the Senate. Anything less is a complete indictment of the party.

The current Democratic majority of 51-49 is tenuous, particularly where 23 Dem-held seats are up for re-election.   One of those seats is in West Virginia, which is a the easiest gain for either party in generations.  Republicans accordingly need a single pick up to take this chamber, which they should get in what has become reliably red Montana.  While Republicans also have viable opportunities across a number of other states; they face tough battles against strong Dem candidates in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada plus a self-inflicted candidate disaster in Arizona, where Trump-loving Kari Lake remains likely to lose an easy pickup in the probable event Trump wins the state.  This leaves Ohio, where anything resembling 2016 and 2020 statewide outcome would likely produce a GOP victory even against the well-liked Dem incumbent Sherrod Brown.  Unfortunately for Rs, a tighter than expected Ohio Presidential result will give Brown some wiggle room and he is predicted to take advantage with a narrow win.  While the pick here is 51-49 in favor of Republicans in the next Senate, a Trump win nationally – especially by 2% plus – could produce absolute carnage on the Dem side and a chamber with realistically as many as 56 Republicans.

E.  The House is likely to mirror the Presidential result.

Quite frankly, the House of Representatives – where Republicans maintain a very narrow majority – is completely up for grabs.  Unless the election for President is surprisingly one-sided, there is no reason to expect a significant House majority for either party.  The reasonable “good case” for Republicans is perhaps a 6-8 seat gain and for Dems it’s perhaps a 10-12 seat gain.  With a prediction of a 2% Harris national popular vote win, the pick here is for Dems to add high single digits in House seats and establish a majority of more than 218 (the minimum needed for a majority) and less than 225.

F.  Only one Governor’s race is hotly contest.

Of the smattering of states with Presidential year Governor’s races, a single state is likely to produce a close result.  The pick here is for non-MAGA Republican Kelly Ayotte to narrowly win in New Hampshire and keep the tradition of moderate GOP Governors finding New England success.  Big kudos to the GOP primary electorate in North Carolina for nominating MAGA firebrand Mark Robinson, whose scandal-ridden campaign (look the scandals up, they involve “Black Nazis” and an affinity for transgender pornography) has turned a hotly-contested open seat race into a Dem runaway.

Bottom Line:  If Donald Trump fails to win the November 5, 2024 election, it will be the fourth consecutive electoral underperformance from the GOP.  From the 2018 bloodbath to the 2020 loss culminating in the 1-6-21 debacle to the 2022 clown show candidate failure, the GOP has suffered through three straight down cycles and a resulting spate of less than competent Democratic governance.  While expecting the party to change now might be a bridge too far, it will be yet another reminder that elections are won in the center and the suburbs.

Conversely, if Trump proves 2016 was “no fluke,” look for Republicans – regardless of how ill-advised in light of the results from candidates behaving like Trump who aren’t actually Trump – continue beating their populist drums.  Even if the true source of their success was a failed Democratic Administration.